By Rachel Freer

A Tipping Point for Renewable Energy

Scarcity, Volatility, and Strategic Opportunity

Utilities continue to increase electricity prices across the country. At the same time, the federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC), a key driver of low-cost renewable energy, will likely not apply to projects that developers bring online after 2027. This phase-out threatens to undermine the cost competitiveness of new renewable installations while demand for renewable power is poised to surpass the projected supply in the coming years.

Simultaneously, cities and states across the country are mandating energy efficiency and emissions reductions at the building level through building performance standards, like Energize Denver and New York’s Local Law 97. These policies go hand-in-hand with corporate climate commitments that are also rapidly approaching their 2030 milestones. These compounding factors are precipitating a tightening race for high-quality, cost-effective renewable energy projects that can help companies meet their decarbonization goals on time and on budget.

For corporate energy buyers, the message is clear: securing affordable renewable energy project offtake is about to become significantly more competitive. In this update, we unpack the recent federal policy changes, shifting market dynamics, and how Cloudbreak Energy is helping customers lock in resilient, long-term energy solutions before the window of available renewable energy capacity begins to close.

Policy Shakeup

The Impact of the “One Big Beautiful Bill”

Congress passed the “One Big Beautiful Bill” in early July, marking the most consequential clean energy policy overhaul since the Inflation Reduction Act became law in 2022. Most notably, it outlines the elimination of the ITC for renewable energy systems as early as 2027, removing a vital tool in reducing the upfront costs of solar projects. This shift will have an inevitable related impact on power purchase agreement (PPA) prices, as well as utility prices, as higher effective project CAPEX will require higher revenue rates and associated free cash flows to maintain the projects’ economic viability.

For corporate energy buyers, this change in tax policy simultaneously creates both future headwinds and short term windows of opportunity. A bundled solar PPA remains a powerful tool for reducing Scope 2 emissions, hedging against future energy price volatility, and showing a tangible commitment to sustainability. However, the window to secure top-tier project pricing under the current federal incentive structures is rapidly narrowing.

The Takeaway

Given fewer new projects are expected to pencil in the next few years, post-ITC, companies can position themselves by acting today to gain critical price advantages ahead of competitive market conditions. By procuring power contracts now, companies can lock in more favorable economics while meeting their sustainability and compliance requirements.

Cost Outlook

Electricity Rates Continue to Climb

A recent analysis estimates national average electricity prices will rise by roughly 25% by 2030 and 74% by 2035, taking into account the impact of the recent policy shifts.

Key drivers include:  

• Reduced Renewable Energy Deployment: Policy changes and permitting delays limit the supply of energy entering the grid by removing tools that allow for low-cost solar and wind projects.
• Aging Grid Infrastructure: Utilities invest heavily in transmission upgrades and grid reliability improvements, investing $1.3 trillion for 2015-2024 with plans to spend $1.1 trillion from 2025-2029. These costs are often passed on to customers through higher rates.
• Increased Peak Demand: Electrification, the AI and data center boom, and more extreme weather events push peak energy demand higher, driving up wholesale prices and straining local supply.

For businesses with sustainability targets or operational exposure to energy volatility, locking in predictable solar power pricing is more important than ever.

Cloudbreak’s Position

Here to help

Cloudbreak Energy actively delivers offsite solar solutions designed to meet corporate buyer’s needs in this changing energy landscape. Cloudbreak differentiates itself by offering:

• Rapid Deployment: Our smaller scale solar projects bypass years long large-scale project interconnection queues, typically reaching commercial operation within 1–2 years to help deliver on your decarbonization targets.

• Location Flexibility: Through off-site solar programs, we can pair customers with our projects across an entire utility service territory. This is ideal for companies without roof space, land, or long-term facility plans.

• Bundled RECs for Scope 2 Compliance: All of our PPAs include Green-e® certified bundled RECs, directly supporting new renewable energy development–delivering higher impact for ESG reporting, climate pledges, and building performance standards like Energize Denver.

We’re currently subscribing our Colorado systems that will come online in 2026-2027. As incentives diminish and fewer shovel-ready project advance, those who commit to offtake early will access the most favorable terms for these sites.

Reach out!

Schedule a portfolio review to learn more about project availability, decarbonization, and hedging your costs:

Rachel Freer
rachel@cloudbreakenergy.com
(970) 235-2041